{ "published_at": "2026-10-02T16:54:03Z", "groups": [ { "group": "UNDERLYING", "rows": [ { "code": "MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE", "label": "Median CPI", "value": 2.1, "unit": "% ann. rate (MoM)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "TRMMEANCPIM158SFRBCLE", "label": "16% trimmed-mean CPI", "value": 2.67, "unit": "% ann. rate (MoM)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "CORESTICKM159SFRBATL", "label": "Sticky-price core CPI", "value": 2.7, "unit": "% YoY", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL", "label": "Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE", "value": 2.19, "unit": "% YoY", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "COREFLEXCPIM159SFRBATL", "label": "Flexible-price core CPI", "value": 1.09, "unit": "% YoY", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "PCEPILFE", "label": "Core PCE (the Fed's target)", "value": 3.01, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "nyfed_mct", "label": "NY Fed Multivariate Core Trend", "value": 2.29, "unit": "% (trend)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" } ] }, { "group": "PIPELINE", "rows": [ { "code": "PPIACO", "label": "PPI all commodities", "value": 9.85, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "IREXPETCOM", "label": "Import prices ex-petroleum", "value": 3.94, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "CHNTOT", "label": "Import prices, goods from China", "value": 2.99, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "CUSR0000SACL1E", "label": "Core goods CPI (tariff pass-through)", "value": 0.66, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "GSCPI", "label": "NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index", "value": 1.06, "unit": "std dev from avg", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "B235RC1Q027SBEA/A255RC1Q027SBEA", "label": "Effective tariff rate (customs duties / goods imports)", "value": 8.22, "unit": "% of goods imports", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "cadence": "quarterly" } ] }, { "group": "EXPECTATIONS", "rows": [ { "code": "T5YIE", "label": "5-year breakeven", "value": 2.36, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "cadence": "daily" }, { "code": "T10YIE", "label": "10-year breakeven", "value": 2.36, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "cadence": "daily" }, { "code": "MICH", "label": "UMich 1-year expectation", "value": 4.0, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "T5YIFR", "label": "5y5y forward breakeven", "value": 2.36, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-10-01", "cadence": "daily" }, { "code": "EXPINF1YR", "label": "Cleveland Fed 1-year expected inflation", "value": 2.64, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "EXPINF10YR", "label": "Cleveland Fed 10-year expected inflation", "value": 2.57, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "nyfed_sce_1y", "label": "NY Fed SCE consumers, 1-year median", "value": 3.58, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "nyfed_sce_3y", "label": "NY Fed SCE consumers, 3-year median", "value": 3.19, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "nyfed_sce_5y", "label": "NY Fed SCE consumers, 5-year median", "value": 3.01, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "atl_bie_1y_median", "label": "Atlanta Fed BIE firms, year-ahead unit costs (median)", "value": 2.36, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "atl_bie_lt_mean", "label": "Atlanta Fed BIE firms, 5-10-year unit costs (mean)", "value": 2.77, "unit": "%", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "cadence": "quarterly" } ] }, { "group": "INTERNATIONAL", "rows": [ { "code": "CP0000EZCCM086NEST", "label": "Euro-area HICP", "value": 3.25, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "code": "TOTNRGFOODEA20MI15XM", "label": "Euro-area core HICP (ex energy, food, alcohol, tobacco)", "value": 2.38, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly" } ] }, { "group": "LABOR COSTS", "rows": [ { "code": "ECIALLCIV", "label": "Employment Cost Index, total comp", "value": 3.38, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "cadence": "quarterly" }, { "code": "ULCNFB", "label": "Unit labor costs, nonfarm business", "value": 1.4, "unit": "% YoY (computed)", "as_of": "2026-04-01", "cadence": "quarterly" } ] } ], "tariffs": { "as_of": "2026-04-01", "rate_pct": 8.219, "numerator": "B235RC1Q027SBEA", "denominator": "A255RC1Q027SBEA", "method": "customs duties / imports of goods, both BEA NIPA quarterly SAAR $bn; latest quarter both series have printed", "history": { "dates": [ "2018-01-01", "2018-04-01", "2018-07-01", "2018-10-01", "2019-01-01", "2019-04-01", "2019-07-01", "2019-10-01", "2020-01-01", "2020-04-01", "2020-07-01", "2020-10-01", "2021-01-01", "2021-04-01", "2021-07-01", "2021-10-01", "2022-01-01", "2022-04-01", "2022-07-01", "2022-10-01", "2023-01-01", "2023-04-01", "2023-07-01", "2023-10-01", "2024-01-01", "2024-04-01", "2024-07-01", "2024-10-01", "2025-01-01", "2025-04-01", "2025-07-01", "2025-10-01", "2026-01-01", "2026-04-01" ], "rate_pct": [ 1.636, 1.838, 2.06, 2.779, 2.989, 2.734, 3.171, 3.48, 3.351, 2.856, 2.813, 2.873, 3.067, 3.153, 3.12, 3.193, 3.362, 3.221, 3.106, 2.865, 2.759, 2.704, 2.546, 2.548, 2.559, 2.45, 2.544, 2.682, 2.849, 8.287, 10.306, 11.303, 9.484, 8.219 ], "customs_bn": [ 41.337, 46.657, 53.244, 71.898, 75.735, 70.03, 79.886, 85.356, 79.515, 55.361, 66.4, 73.23, 81.759, 88.181, 88.826, 97.64, 108.681, 108.544, 101.05, 91.055, 85.687, 82.33, 78.861, 79.653, 80.48, 79.679, 85.084, 89.104, 103.66, 270.592, 333.75, 366.651, 326.223, 306.398 ], "goods_imports_bn": [ 2526.65, 2538.03, 2584.777, 2586.742, 2533.731, 2561.04, 2519.01, 2452.962, 2372.814, 1938.596, 2360.466, 2548.498, 2665.531, 2796.611, 2846.742, 3057.557, 3232.58, 3369.48, 3253.104, 3177.761, 3105.795, 3044.88, 3096.972, 3125.801, 3144.372, 3252.683, 3344.085, 3321.715, 3638.671, 3265.204, 3238.31, 3243.832, 3439.879, 3727.887 ] } } }