{
  "published_at": "2026-10-02T16:54:03Z",
  "target": "CPI",
  "release_date": "2026-10-14",
  "core_benchmarks": {
    "cleveland": {
      "value": 0.2,
      "as_of": "2026-09-11"
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    "kalshi": {
      "value": 0.172,
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  },
  "core_ensemble": {
    "value": 0.16,
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      "kalshi": 0.3333
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  },
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    "target_month": "2026-09",
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    "mom_nsa_pct": 0.39,
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      "mom_pct": 0.11,
      "mom_nsa_pct": 0.14,
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      "weight_share": 0.7937
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    "yoy_pct": 3.24,
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "status": "live",
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    "components": [
      {
        "component": "shelter_owned",
        "mom_pct": 0.2525,
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        "contribution_pp": 0.0654,
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      {
        "component": "other",
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        "contribution_pp": 0.0227,
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      {
        "component": "food_home",
        "mom_pct": 0.3316,
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        "driver_mom_pct": 0.2113
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      {
        "component": "medical",
        "mom_pct": 0.1145,
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        "contribution_pp": 0.0094,
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      {
        "component": "shelter_rent",
        "mom_pct": 0.2347,
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      {
        "component": "food_away",
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      {
        "component": "education_comm",
        "mom_pct": 0.1646,
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      {
        "component": "recreation",
        "mom_pct": 0.2253,
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        "contribution_pp": 0.0114,
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      {
        "component": "new_vehicles",
        "mom_pct": 0.0929,
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        "contribution_pp": 0.0035,
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      {
        "component": "fuel",
        "mom_pct": 6.0846,
        "weight": 0.038532,
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      {
        "component": "electricity",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "weight": 0.025297,
        "contribution_pp": 0.0008,
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      {
        "component": "apparel",
        "mom_pct": -0.1833,
        "weight": 0.024451,
        "contribution_pp": -0.0045,
        "basis": "trend"
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      {
        "component": "used_vehicles",
        "mom_pct": -0.8297,
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        "contribution_pp": -0.0223,
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      {
        "component": "nat_gas",
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        "contribution_pp": 0.0019,
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    ]
  },
  "pce": {
    "mom_pct": 0.35,
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      "intercept": 0.099216,
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      "window_months": 24,
      "observations": 24
    },
    "bridge": "cpi",
    "bridge_note": "PPI for 2026-09 not printed yet (ppi_pce_airline, ppi_pce_physician, ppi_pce_hospital, ppi_pce_portfolio)",
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      "source": "nowcast",
      "series": "CPIAUCSL",
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    "reference_month": "2026-09",
    "release_date": "2026-10-29",
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      "mom_pct": 0.19,
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        "intercept": 0.144243,
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      "bridge": "cpi",
      "bridge_note": "PPI for 2026-09 not printed yet (ppi_pce_airline, ppi_pce_physician, ppi_pce_hospital, ppi_pce_portfolio)",
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      "cpi_input": {
        "source": "nowcast",
        "series": "CPILFESL",
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      "reference_month": "2026-09",
      "benchmarks": {
        "cleveland": {
          "value": 0.25,
          "as_of": "2026-09-30"
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      }
    },
    "benchmarks": {
      "cleveland": {
        "value": 0.43,
        "as_of": "2026-09-30"
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  },
  "nfp": {
    "change_thousands": 69,
    "status": "live",
    "reference_month": "2026-10",
    "parameters": {
      "a": 19.775854,
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      "c": 1.0,
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    "inputs": {
      "payroll_momentum": 50.67,
      "claims_delta_thousands": -7.5
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  },
  "benchmarks": {
    "cleveland": {
      "value": 0.53,
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
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    "kalshi": {
      "value": 0.515,
      "as_of": "2026-10-02"
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  },
  "ensemble": {
    "value": 0.49,
    "weights": {
      "macrogauge": 0.3333,
      "cleveland": 0.3333,
      "kalshi": 0.3333
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  },
  "generated_on": "2026-10-02"
}