Daily briefing Updated Oct 2, 2026

US inflation

An independent daily gauge that re-prices the CPI basket from live market data — published with full receipts, graded against every official print.

Macrogauge · YoY

3.24%

vs official −0.16ppCPI-comparable · Oct 2, 2026

Official CPI · YoY

3.40%

Aug 2026 print · previous 3.36%

CPI-Tracker · YoY

3.72%

gap +0.33ppTracks official shelter dynamics

Core CPI · YoY

2.45%

Aug 2026 print · previous 2.48%

Next CPI · ensemble MoM

0.49%

Sep 2026 · Oct 14, 2026

39% of basket weight repriced from live data · Official CPI released Sep 11, 2026

From the official print to ours

Official CPI · Aug 2026 print3.40%
−0.06pp basket decomposition error
14-component reconstruction3.34%
−0.11pp component gaps, ours − BLS
Macrogauge · Oct 2, 20263.24%

Headline gap −0.16pp = −0.06pp decomposition error (re-weighting BLS's own component YoYs by our 14 basket weights, before any live data) + −0.11pp component gaps (Σ weight × ours − BLS; by component) +0.01pp rounding.

Macrogauge vs official

Cite

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Latest 24 months · year-over-year change

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LEAD-LAG: the gauge as read at each month-end (real-time record, before that month's print) correlates 0.9507 with official CPI 1 month ahead (2018-01..2026-08) · CPI-TRACKER 3.7% — built to re-track the print · 39% of basket weight rides live data

Since yesterdayMacrogauge (CPI-comparable) −0.01ppCPI-Tracker −0.01ppCost of Living −0.31ppPCE-weighted −0.01ppGasoline −0.39pp21 sources landed new rowsfull diff →vs 2026-10-01 18:43 UTC

Next CPI print · 2026-09

Oct 14, 2026

BLS release · previous print 3.40% YoY

Macrogauge0.43%

Kalshi0.52%

Cleveland0.53%

headline MoM calls · median 0.52% · spread 0.10pp

Ensemble 0.49% MoM · weights macrogauge 33.3% · cleveland 33.3% · kalshi 33.3%

Market pulse

Regular gas · EIA weekly4.46 $/gal+40.7% YoY · week of 2026-09-28

30Y mortgage7.28%+0.98pp YoY

Gold4163.70 $/oz+7.6% YoY

Public debt$40.17T+6.7% YoY

Fuel component · AAA daily pump $4.40 → $4.45 in 2 weeks · implied by RBOB futures · 2026-10-02

Top movers · official CPI

▲ Gasoline (CPI)+2.5%MoM

▲ Apparel+1.9%MoM

▲ Education & comm+1.9%MoM

▼ Piped gas (CPI)−0.9%MoM

▼ Electricity (CPI)−0.5%MoM

▲ Owners' equiv. rent+0.3%MoM

Ranked by absolute monthly move · Aug 2026 print

Contribution to YoY — what is driving the number

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Breadth — how much of the basket is inflating

Breadth · above 2%

51%

of basket weight · 64% of components · Oct 2026

Accelerating

53%

of basket weight with YoY higher than 3 months earlier

Weighted median

2.1%

the component YoY at the middle of basket weight

16% trimmed mean

2.2%

Cleveland-style trim over our 14 coarse components

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Fourteen coarse components, not Cleveland's 45-item trim — read these as breadth diagnostics beside the Cleveland/Atlanta measures on the matrix, not as substitutes. Trimmed mean drops 16% of basket weight from each tail (splitting the straddling component) and averages the rest; the median is the component at the middle of cumulative weight. Cells are the published quilt YoYs; nothing is re-priced.

Basket treemap — every component, replay 2018 → now

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Component gap decomposition — ours vs BLS

Component	Weight	Mode	Ours YoY	BLS YoY (Aug 2026)	Gap	Contribution
Shelter (owned)	26.2%	LIVE	+1.5%	+3.1%	−1.56pp	−0.41pp
Gasoline	3.0%	LIVE	+39.9%	+27.4%	+12.48pp	+0.37pp
Rent	7.5%	LIVE	+1.5%	+2.8%	−1.23pp	−0.09pp
Used cars & trucks	2.4%	LIVE	−1.6%	−2.3%	+0.67pp	+0.02pp
Everything else (CPI residual)	18.1%	BLS-CF	+3.2%	+3.2%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Food at home	8.0%	BLS-CF	+2.2%	+2.2%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Medical care	8.3%	BLS-CF	+1.6%	+1.6%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Food away from home	5.6%	BLS-CF	+3.4%	+3.4%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Education & comm	5.6%	BLS-CF	+2.1%	+2.1%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Recreation	5.3%	BLS-CF	+2.7%	+2.7%	0.00pp	0.00pp
New vehicles	4.3%	BLS-CF	+0.6%	+0.6%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Electricity	2.4%	BLS-CF	+3.8%	+3.8%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Apparel	2.6%	BLS-CF	+3.6%	+3.6%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Piped gas	0.8%	BLS-CF	+4.4%	+4.4%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Total gap vs BLS basket (reconstructed)						−0.11pp

gap contribution = weight × (ours − BLS) · ours as of 2026-10-02 · BLS-CF rows carry the official print, so their gap is 0 by construction · the total is vs our 14-component reconstruction of the BLS basket, so it differs slightly from the headline gap vs the official CPI print

Macrogauge vs official — gap table

Index	Macrogauge YoY	Latest official YoY	Gap	Next print
US CPI daily gauge	3.2% 2026-10-02	3.4% Aug 2026	−0.16pp	Sep 2026 · 2026-10-14
CPI-Tracker official shelter dynamics	3.7% 2026-10-02	3.4% Aug 2026	+0.32pp	Sep 2026 · 2026-10-14

How the methodology works →Prices are up 35.7% since Jan 2018

Macrogauge outlook — next 12 months

model macrogauge_outlook_v1as of 2026-10-0288% forward-driver coverage

latest complete month 3.03%Sep 2027 1.75% (-0.05–3.55%)band = 0.520pp/mo × √horizon

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Fuel futures (RBOB 60% / WTI 40%, 2mo)+5.10%live · 2026-09-30

New-lease rents (ZORI + Apartment List, 12mo median)+0.21%/molive · 2026-09-01

Agricultural futures composite (8 contracts, 3mo)+5.65%live · 2026-09-30

Henry Hub natural gas (3mo)-7.57%live · 2026-09-30

Manheim used wholesale (3mo)-3.15%live · 2026-09-01

New vehicles (own complete-month trend)+0.09%/mofallback · 2026-09-01

Atlanta Fed wage growth+4.10%/yrlive · 2026-08-01

Ex-energy pipeline (PPI + imports, 0.5× strength)-1.00pp/yrlive · 2026-08-01

Each of the 14 gauge components receives a 12-month path from forward drivers or the 12-month median of its own real complete-month changes (stopped at its last observation, capped at ±20%/yr). Component index levels are CPI-weighted; YoY uses actual year-ago levels, so base effects are exact.

Model projection, not a promise or investment advice. The shaded range is a realized-volatility band, not a calibrated confidence interval.

The outlook's starting point (3.03%, Sep 2026) is the gauge's index-level YoY — a ratio of monthly index levels — not the own-observation headline above (3.24%), so the two differ. Component paths and drivers: outlook.

Inflation quilt — every component, every month

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Official CPI components — YoY (Aug 2026 print)

Component	YoY	MoM
Gasoline (CPI)	+27.4%	+2.5%
Piped gas (CPI)	+4.4%	−0.9%
Other goods & services	+4.2%	+0.1%
Electricity (CPI)	+3.8%	−0.5%
Apparel	+3.6%	+1.9%
Food away from home	+3.4%	+0.3%
Owners' equiv. rent	+3.1%	+0.3%
Rent	+2.8%	+0.2%
Recreation	+2.7%	0.0%
Food at home	+2.2%	0.0%
Education & comm	+2.1%	+1.9%
Medical care	+1.6%	−0.1%
New vehicles	+0.6%	+0.1%
Used cars & trucks	−2.3%	0.0%

Quote board — official prices across the basket

Grocery basketEggs, dozen$2.27YoY −36.7%2026-08-01

Grocery basketMilk, gallon$4.23YoY +1.4%2026-08-01

Grocery basketBread, lb$1.82YoY −1.0%2026-08-01

Grocery basketGround beef (100%), lb$6.92YoY +9.6%2026-08-01

Grocery basketChicken, lb$2.01YoY −3.1%2026-08-01

Grocery basketBananas, lb$0.65YoY −2.1%2026-08-01

EnergyGas, regular4.46 $/galYoY +40.7%2026-09-28

EnergyElectricity18.31 ¢/kWhYoY +4.9%2026-07-01

EnergyNatural gas26.45 $/McfYoY +4.0%2026-07-01

Rates30yr mortgage7.28%YoY +15.6%2026-10-01

MarketsGold4163.70 $/ozYoY +7.6%2026-10-02

MarketsWTI crude91.40 $/bblYoY +51.1%2026-10-02

FiscalTotal public debt$40.17TYoY +6.7%2026-09-30

Grocery basket — BLS average prices

Eggs (dozen)−36.7%

$2.27

Aug 2026

Milk (gallon)+1.4%

$4.23

Aug 2026

Ground beef (lb)+9.6%

$6.92

Aug 2026

Bread (lb)−1.0%

$1.82

Aug 2026

Electricity (kWh)+3.2%

$0.20

Aug 2026

Utility gas (therm)+4.9%

$1.71

Aug 2026

BLS average prices (AP series), monthly, national city average — as of Aug 2026. Sparkline = full monthly history since 2018.

Sources

AAA · 2026-10-02 AAA_STATE · 2026-10-02 APTLIST · 2026-09-01 ATLFED · 2026-09-01 BLS · 2026-08-01 CAISO · 2026-10-02 CENSUS · 2026-08-01 CLEVELAND · 2026-10-01 DRAMEX · 2026-10-02 EIA · 2026-09-28 EIA_SPOT · 2026-09-29 EIA_STATE · 2026-07-01 EIA_STATE_RES · 2026-07-01 FMP · 2026-10-02 FMP_EQ · 2026-10-02 FRED · 2026-10-02 ICE · 2026-09-29 KALSHI · 2026-09-01 KALSHI_CORE · 2026-09-01 KALSHI_DC · 2026-10-02 KALSHI_FED · 2026-12-09 MANHEIM · 2026-09-01 MISO · 2026-10-01 MND · 2026-10-02 NYFED · 2026-08-01 OPENROUTER · 2026-10-02 PMMS · 2026-10-01 QCEW · 2026-01-01 QCEW_238212 · 2026-01-01 STEO · 2027-12-01 TREASURY · 2026-09-30 USDA · 2026-10-02 VASTAI · 2026-10-02 ZILLOW · 2026-08-01

All figures from official/public sources (BLS, FRED, EIA, Zillow, Freddie Mac, U.S. Treasury, FMP) — collected daily, published with as-of dates. The independent macrogauge index re-prices the CPI basket daily from live market and public data (39% of basket weight today; the rest carries official BLS values forward between prints).