Labor Market the jobs market, in receipts

Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, jobless claims and wage growth — the series the pipeline already collects, now in one place, with our next-jobs-report nowcast graded against the print.

Payrolls (MoM)

+29k

159,044k total · Sep 2026

Unemployment

4.2%

-0.2pp vs 1y ago

Initial claims

197,000

200,000 4-wk avg · continued 1,701,000 · Sep 2026

Wage growth

4.1%

Atlanta Fed tracker · AHE +3.0%

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Next jobs report

NFP nowcast

+69k

reference Oct 2026

Grading receipts

118k MAE

3 prints · bias +30k (forecast − actual)

Our nonfarm-payroll nowcast for the next report, graded in public after each print — the receipts card fills in as prints land (see the Forecast Scoreboard for the full per-print history). Payrolls, claims and wages: BLS/DOL/FRED, monthly and weekly. Unemployment shows the percentage-point change vs a year ago, not a percent change.