Recession Composite six transparent signals
Recession composite
0.0%
equal-weight share of available rules · 2026-10-02T16:54:03Z
Signals triggered
0/6
transparent rules, no black box
Status: 0 of 6 available signals are triggered.
Signal rules
| Signal | Rule | Value | As of | Triggered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm | >= +0.50pp | 0 | 2026-09-01 | no |
| 10Y–3M | < 0 | 1.07 | 2026-10-01 | no |
| NFCI | > 0 | -0.548 | 2026-09-25 | no |
| Claims | 13-week avg > 110% of 52-week avg | 95.5 | 2026-09-26 | no |
| CFNAI | < -0.70 | 0.01 | 2026-08-01 | no |
| Chauvet-Piger | > 20% | 0.62 | 2026-08-01 | no |
The composite is the equal-weight share of available rules currently triggered. It is a signal dashboard, not a fitted recession probability. A red YES badge marks a rule currently met; unavailable means the signal’s input is missing and it is excluded from the share.