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Ensemble CPI · MoM (SA)
0.49%
2026-09 · releases 2026-10-14
Benchmark error scale
0.20–0.78%
±0.29pp = MAE of a simple 3-month-average benchmark over 110 vintage-true prints (naive last-month 0.25pp) — not this ensemble's track record, not a calibrated interval
Forecasters live
3
Unavailable benchmarks receive zero weight
| Forecaster | MoM | Type | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macrogauge | 0.43% | MODEL | 2026-10-02 |
| Cleveland | 0.53% | BENCHMARK | 2026-09-30 |
| Kalshi | 0.52% | BENCHMARK | 2026-10-02 |
Ensemble core CPI · MoM (SA)
0.16%
CPI less food & energy — our bottom-up rows ex food/energy vs Cleveland Fed and the Kalshi core ladder
| Forecaster | MoM | Type | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macrogauge | 0.11% | MODEL | 2026-10-02 |
| Cleveland | 0.20% | BENCHMARK | 2026-09-11 |
| Kalshi | 0.17% | BENCHMARK | 2026-10-02 |
Fuel · two-week forward
$4.448
RBOB futures · as of 2026-10-02
Printed formula: pump + 0.85 × (RBOB_5d_avg − RBOB_prior15d_avg). Proxy substitutions are disclosed; they are never presented as the named source.